Friday, December 2, 2011

SPX Daily - Friday, Dec 2

@ 4 PM

Was that a wave ii top?

@ 12 Noon


  1. I'm torn whether the move from 1160 to today's high was a sharp correction or an impulse. A couple of factors suggest it was a 2 wave corrective, but it could just by my bear bias.

    Any thoughts / convictions one way or the other - perhaps as it relates to your complex counting method??

  2. The posted count is my preferred, but your count is my close alternate.

    Updated the higher degree counts today.

    I believe these are complex corrective waves, Thatz why counting them as impulses and/or abc is difficult.

    Though minuette i & ii could easily be Minute 1 & 2.

  3. my gut (along with some subtle EW concepts) is telling me this was just a sharp corrective move up. Thanks for your comment.

    I did review the guidelines you posted about complex correctives...i just didn't get it right i will review it again!

  4. thanks for the additional comments over at my blog...i'm definitely going to look more into it...

    so my instincts say 1292 holds ... which would be aligned with your view... i always worry my 'instincts' are my biases

  5. i could point to a couple of keys in structure...but basically...the move from 1160 to 1262 'looks' like a sharp corrective rather than what i'd want to see as an impulse

  6. also...i noticed almost everyone over at Danerics blog expects a further rally...which could certainly be fuel for a sharp decline to come instead.

  7. one last thought...i've been noticing that within a larger degree 3 wave down...2 wave corrections up tend to be small and short...the 4 waves tend to be bigger --

    so if the move from 1160-1262 is pretty big and sharp -- it would suggest that it is NOT part of a larger degree 3 wave down...which is also consistent with the X wave scenario -- let's see if it ends up coming Jan 18th... that would be pretty damn cool !!

  8. another last thought --

    I've been thinking that a P3 market would be characterized by perception that the FED policies aren't effective or are actually harmful. I think we're starting to see that.

    So I personally feel that the 1292 level is really significant... because if the FED induced surge from 1160-1262 so far... because of the central bank coordination and dollar swaps etc -- can only muster a 'corrective wave' and not an impulse -- that will be the market telling us the days of FED impotence may be upon us!