Friday, December 3, 2010

Grand Super Cycles

Grand Super Cycle I
Peaked in 1720. Please see South Sea Company, and the South Sea Bubble in England.
Grand Super Cycle II
From 1720 to 1784. Was a zigzag.  The South Sea Bubble Bursts.

Grand Super Cycle III
Per EWI,  Grand Super Cycle III which started in 1775, ended in 2000. It has five Super Cycle waves. Super Cycle (V) started in 1932 and ended in 2000.

The way I am counting, Grand Super Cycle III & Super Cycle (V) ended in 2007.

EWI's chart cannot be reproduced here due to copyright reasons.

Grand Super Cycle III from 1775 To 2007.
  • Super Cycle (I) - 1775-1837
  • Super Cycle (II) - 1837-1857
  • Super Cycle (III) - 1857-1929
  • Super Cycle (IV) - 1929-1932
  • Super Cycle (V)  - 1932-2007 ( Per EWI : 1932-2000 )

This chart borrowed from a Martin Armstrong article, marked with Super Cycles.

Grand Super Cycle IV
We are currently in Cycle (I) of Super Cycle a of Grand Super Cycle IV,  as per my wave count.

Since Grand Super Cycle II was a zigzag, the guideline of alternation suggests Grand Super Cycle IV will be a flat or a triangle or a combination correction like that of Cycle IV from 1966 to 1982

A flat would require that the wave b rise quickly back to the start of wave a. Which appears unlikely, given the structural problems in the economy. So a triangle is considered to be more probable where the wave b of the triangle need not retrace to the start of wave a. A combination correction would also not require a quick retrace to the 2007 highs.

      1 comment:

      1. Hi there just found your site, very interesting work.
        Can you update where we are currently?